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U. Catolica vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 00:00

U. Catolica

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Nublense

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+17.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.3%0-13.8%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.5%1-18.6%1-24.9%1-31.8%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.5%3-17.3%3-24.2%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-17.1%4+-24.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 59.9% 1.67 -11.3%

Draw 22.5% 29.4% 3.40 -14.1%

Away win 24.4% 22.2% 4.50 +5.9%

Over 2.5 64.5% 51.3% 1.95 +25.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 30.8% 3.25 +41.4%

BTTS 61.3% 52.4% 1.91 +17.1%

Home O1.5 65.1% 55.6% 1.80 +17.2%

Away O1.5 35.6% 26.7% 3.75 +33.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 53% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.6%

#4 1–2✓ 4.9%

#5 3–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica2.3

Nublense1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.5% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.89

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.62

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.13 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -11.3%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -14.1%

Nublense (A) 24.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 53% chance, the draw 23% and Nublense 24%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for U. Catolica and 1.1 for Nublense (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.62 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +41.4%. This match finished 1-2.

U. Catolica vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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