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Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:30

Deportes Limache

PPG 1.88 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

0 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Everton de Vina

PPG 1.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.5 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 66.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-14.2%0-23.0%0-31.5%0-4+0.7%1 1-06.1%1-18.8%1-26.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.4%2-19.2%2-26.6%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.5%3-16.4%3-24.6%3-32.2%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-15.5%4+-24.0%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 44.4% 2.25 +9.3%

Draw 22.1% 27.8% 3.60 -12.3%

Away win 29.3% 36.8% 2.72 -12.2%

Over 2.5 66.4% 60.6% 1.65 +9.6%

Over 3.5 45.0% 38.2% 2.62 +17.9%

BTTS 63.1% 65.4% 1.53 -3.5%

Home O1.5 59.6% 51.3% 1.95 +16.2%

Away O1.5 40.9% 45.5% 2.20 -10.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-3

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.1%

H 49% / xG 2.1-1.4 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 6.3%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Limache2.1

Everton de Vina1.4

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 66.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 1.88

EVERTON DE VINA · PPG 1.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Limache (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +9.3%

Draw 22.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.3%

Everton de Vina (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -12.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Limache face Everton de Vina in Chile - Primera División on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Limache a 49% chance, the draw 22% and Everton de Vina 29%, so Deportes Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Deportes Limache and 1.4 for Everton de Vina (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Limache are averaging 1.88 points per game versus 1.56 for Everton de Vina. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.8%. This match finished 0-3.

Deportes Limache vs Everton de Vina Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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