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D. La Serena vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

D. La Serena

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDW

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Cobresal

PPG 0.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+12.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-13.0%0-21.7%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-06.7%1-17.5%1-24.2%1-31.6%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.3%2-19.4%2-25.3%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.9%3-17.8%3-24.4%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-18.8%4+-24.9%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.2% 59.9% 1.67 -6.2%

Draw 21.8% 27.8% 3.60 -12.9%

Away win 22.0% 23.8% 4.20 -4.6%

Over 2.5 64.6% 58.8% 1.70 +9.8%

Over 3.5 43.5% 38.2% 2.62 +14.0%

BTTS 61.3% 61.7% 1.62 -0.7%

Home O1.5 65.1% 57.8% 1.73 +12.6%

Away O1.5 35.6% 30.8% 3.25 +15.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 61%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob61.3%

H 56% / xG 2.5-1.1 / O2.5 65% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 7.5%

#2 2–1 9.4%

#3 2–0 8.3%

#4 3–1 7.8%

#5 1–2 4.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. La Serena2.5

Cobresal1.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.6% · O3.5 PROB 43.5%

Form & verdict PPG

D. LA SERENA · PPG 1.33

COBRESAL · PPG 0.20

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

D. La Serena (H) 56.2%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -6.2%

Draw 21.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.9%

Cobresal (A) 22.0%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -4.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. La Serena face Cobresal in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. La Serena a 56% chance, the draw 22% and Cobresal 22%, so D. La Serena are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for D. La Serena and 1.1 for Cobresal (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 65% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. La Serena are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.20 for Cobresal. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +28.4%. This match finished 3-3.

D. La Serena vs Cobresal Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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