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Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 16 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 22:00

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

UPCOMING

Universidad de Concepcion

PPG 0.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.6% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-15.1%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-19.8%1-23.3%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-08.7%3-15.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-14.4%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% 64.1% 1.56 -11.7%

Draw 22.3% 26.3% 3.80 -9.2%

Away win 21.1% 18.5% 5.40 +8.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 56.5% 1.77 -4.8%

Over 3.5 31.6% 33.9% 2.95 -6.8%

BTTS 49.9% 56.5% 1.77 -11.7%

Home O1.5 55.8% 60.6% 1.65 -7.9%

Away O1.5 18.8% 26.3% 3.80 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.9%

H 57% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 9.8%

#4 0–0 7.5%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coquimbo Unido1.9

Universidad de Concepcion0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.33

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION · PPG 0.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.23 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Coquimbo Unido (H) 56.6%

ODDS 1.56 · IMPLIED 64.1% EV -11.7%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -9.2%

Universidad de Concepcion (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.40 · IMPLIED 18.5% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coquimbo Unido face Universidad de Concepcion in Chile - Primera División on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coquimbo Unido a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Universidad de Concepcion 21%, so Coquimbo Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Coquimbo Unido and 0.7 for Universidad de Concepcion (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 0.60 for Universidad de Concepcion. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +0.9%.

Coquimbo Unido vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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