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Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 19 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 22:00

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

U. Catolica

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 60.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-16.4%0-24.4%0-32.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.8%1-110.8%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-19.1%2-26.3%2-32.9%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.1%3-23.5%3-31.6%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 46.3% 2.16 -1.7%

Draw 24.7% 29.9% 3.35 -10.3%

Away win 29.8% 32.8% 3.05 -5.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.7% 31.3% 3.20 +17.4%

BTTS 60.3% 59.9% 1.67 +0.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 47.6% 2.10 +2.7%

Away O1.5 40.9% 37.7% 2.65 +8.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob60.3%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2✓ 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Coquimbo Unido1.7

U. Catolica1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.50

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.44

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Coquimbo Unido (H) 45.5%

ODDS 2.16 · IMPLIED 46.3% EV -1.7%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.3%

U. Catolica (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.05 · IMPLIED 32.8% EV -5.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Coquimbo Unido face U. Catolica in Chile - Primera División on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Coquimbo Unido a 46% chance, the draw 25% and U. Catolica 30%, so Coquimbo Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Coquimbo Unido and 1.4 for U. Catolica (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Coquimbo Unido are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.44 for U. Catolica. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-2.

Coquimbo Unido vs U. Catolica Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions