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Union La Calera vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 22:15

Union La Calera

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

D. La Serena

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-17.4%0-24.7%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.2%1-111.7%1-27.3%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.3%2-19.2%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.8%3-14.8%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.7%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Draw 23.4% 29.0% 3.45 -11.6%

Away win 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 55.6% 1.80 -3.2%

Over 3.5 33.5% 33.3% 3.00 +0.5%

BTTS 55.9% 60.6% 1.65 -7.8%

Home O1.5 46.9% 48.8% 2.05 -3.9%

Away O1.5 36.8% 38.5% 2.60 -4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.9%

H 43% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 2–1 9.2%

#3 1–2 7.3%

#4 1–0 9.2%

#5 2–0 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union La Calera1.6

D. La Serena1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION LA CALERA · PPG 1.20

D. LA SERENA · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union La Calera (H) 42.7%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -8.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.6%

D. La Serena (A) 33.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union La Calera face D. La Serena in Chile - Primera División on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union La Calera a 43% chance, the draw 23% and D. La Serena 34%, so Union La Calera are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Union La Calera and 1.3 for D. La Serena (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union La Calera are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 1.10 for D. La Serena. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.5%. This match finished 0-1.

Union La Calera vs D. La Serena Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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