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Nublense vs Concepción Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Nublense

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Concepción

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a clear edge.

+10.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-18.3%0-23.7%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-014.0%1-112.3%1-25.4%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.3%2-19.1%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.1%3-14.5%3-22.0%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.3%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 46.5% 2.15 +1.1%

Draw 27.2% 35.7% 2.80 -14.3%

Away win 25.8% 29.4% 3.40 -7.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 38.5% 2.60 +31.3%

Over 3.5 28.7% 20.0% 5.00 +26.1%

BTTS 52.7% 47.6% 2.10 +10.7%

Home O1.5 40.1% 44.4% 2.25 -9.8%

Away O1.5 25.7% 29.4% 3.40 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 47% / xG 1.5-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 14.0%

#3 0–0 9.4%

#4 2–0 10.3%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nublense1.5

Concepción0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.60

CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nublense (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +1.1%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.3%

Concepción (A) 25.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nublense face Concepción in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nublense a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Concepción 26%, so Nublense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Nublense and 0.9 for Concepción (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nublense are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.00 for Concepción. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +31.3%. This match finished 0-1.

Nublense vs Concepción Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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