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Cobresal vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 22:30

Cobresal

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Palestino

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.8% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+7.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-17.1%0-25.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.4%1 1-07.3%1-111.0%1-28.3%1-34.2%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.5%2-26.4%2-33.2%2-4+1.7%3 3-02.9%3-14.4%3-23.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% 38.8% 2.58 -9.4%

Draw 23.2% 29.0% 3.45 -12.0%

Away win 41.7% 41.3% 2.42 +0.9%

Over 2.5 59.8% 55.6% 1.80 +7.6%

Over 3.5 37.1% 33.9% 2.95 +9.4%

BTTS 60.8% 62.5% 1.60 -2.7%

Home O1.5 44.0% 43.5% 2.30 +1.2%

Away O1.5 44.2% 45.5% 2.20 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 46%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob60.8%

A 42% / xG 1.5-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 1–2 8.3%

#3 2–1 8.5%

#4 0–1 7.1%

#5 0–2 5.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobresal1.5

Palestino1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.8% · O3.5 PROB 37.1%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRESAL · PPG 1.33

PALESTINO · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cobresal (H) 35.1%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -9.4%

Draw 23.2%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.0%

Palestino (A) 41.7%

ODDS 2.42 · IMPLIED 41.3% EV +0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobresal face Palestino in Chile - Primera División on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobresal a 35% chance, the draw 23% and Palestino 42%, so Palestino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cobresal and 1.5 for Palestino (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobresal are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.20 for Palestino. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +9.4%. This match finished 2-0.

Cobresal vs Palestino Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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