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Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 23:30

Everton de Vina

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Universidad de Concepcion

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 57.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.6%0-15.4%0-21.9%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-014.3%1-110.0%1-23.5%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.3%2-19.4%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.3%3-15.8%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.9%4+-14.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.7% 59.9% 1.67 -3.6%

Draw 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Away win 19.5% 25.0% 4.00 -13.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 33.3% 3.00 -5.5%

BTTS 49.3% 57.1% 1.75 -13.7%

Home O1.5 56.3% 57.8% 1.73 -2.6%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.7% 3.75 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.3%

H 58% / xG 1.9-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.3%

#2 1–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 10.0%

#4 2–1 9.4%

#5 0–0 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Everton de Vina1.9

Universidad de Concepcion0.7

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EVERTON DE VINA · PPG 1.00

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.17 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Everton de Vina (H) 57.7%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -3.6%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Universidad de Concepcion (A) 19.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -13.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Everton de Vina face Universidad de Concepcion in Chile - Primera División on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Everton de Vina a 58% chance, the draw 23% and Universidad de Concepcion 20%, so Everton de Vina are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Everton de Vina and 0.7 for Universidad de Concepcion (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Everton de Vina are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 0.67 for Universidad de Concepcion. This match finished 3-1.

Everton de Vina vs Universidad de Concepcion Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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