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Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Universidad de Concepcion

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Universidad de Chile

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.5%0-118.8%0-211.4%0-34.6%0-4+1.8%1 1-010.1%1-112.2%1-27.4%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.3%2-14.0%2-22.4%2-31.0%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.7%3-10.9%3-20.5%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.5% 21.5% 4.65 +8.4%

Draw 27.7% 27.8% 3.60 -0.2%

Away win 47.8% 59.5% 1.68 -19.7%

Over 2.5 43.1% 55.6% 1.80 -22.4%

Over 3.5 20.7% 33.3% 3.00 -22.7%

BTTS 47.2% 57.8% 1.73 -18.3%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 36.6% 56.5% 1.77 -35.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob47.2%

A 48% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.8%

#2 0–0 15.5%

#3 1–1 12.2%

#4 0–2 11.4%

#5 1–0 10.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad de Concepcion0.7

Universidad de Chile1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD DE CONCEPCION · PPG 1.44

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE · PPG 1.50

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.56 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Universidad de Concepcion (H) 24.5%

ODDS 4.65 · IMPLIED 21.5% EV +8.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -0.2%

Universidad de Chile (A) 47.8%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -19.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad de Concepcion face Universidad de Chile in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad de Concepcion a 25% chance, the draw 28% and Universidad de Chile 48%, so Universidad de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Universidad de Concepcion and 1.2 for Universidad de Chile (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad de Concepcion are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 1.50 for Universidad de Chile. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Universidad de Concepcion vs Universidad de Chile Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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