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Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Universidad de Chile

PPG 2.33 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Colo Colo

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.1%0-19.6%0-24.6%0-31.5%0-4+0.4%1 1-013.5%1-112.9%1-26.1%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.1%2-18.7%2-24.1%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-04.1%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.7%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 44.4% 2.25 +4.6%

Draw 26.3% 30.8% 3.25 -8.7%

Away win 27.2% 35.7% 2.80 -14.3%

Over 2.5 50.2% 54.1% 1.85 -7.1%

Over 3.5 30.8% 30.8% 3.25 +0.1%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 37.8% 44.4% 2.25 -14.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 40.0% 2.50 -21.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob53.0%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 13.5%

#3 0–0 10.1%

#4 2–0 9.1%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universidad de Chile1.3

Colo Colo1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSIDAD DE CHILE · PPG 2.33

COLO COLO · PPG 2.67

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Universidad de Chile (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +4.6%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -8.7%

Colo Colo (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universidad de Chile face Colo Colo in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universidad de Chile a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Colo Colo 27%, so Universidad de Chile are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Universidad de Chile and 1.0 for Colo Colo (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universidad de Chile are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.67 for Colo Colo. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Universidad de Chile vs Colo Colo Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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