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U. Catolica vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 00:45

U. Catolica

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

O'Higgins

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 66.5% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a clear edge.

+15.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.3%0-21.3%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.3%1-16.3%1-23.7%1-31.5%1-4+0.6%2 2-07.4%2-18.7%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-18.0%3-24.8%3-31.9%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-110.9%4+-26.5%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.2% 57.8% 1.73 +7.6%

Draw 17.5% 27.0% 3.70 -21.1%

Away win 20.2% 24.4% 4.10 -10.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 58.8% 1.70 +16.3%

Over 3.5 45.2% 36.4% 2.75 +24.3%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 66.5% 57.8% 1.73 +15.0%

Away O1.5 33.9% 33.3% 3.00 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)2.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.5%

H 62% / xG 2.8-1.2 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.7%

#2 1–1 6.3%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

U. Catolica2.8

O'Higgins1.2

COMBINED 4.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.2%

Form & verdict PPG

U. CATOLICA · PPG 1.70

O'HIGGINS · PPG 1.20

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.58 for Home, form 1.70 vs 1.20 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

U. Catolica (H) 62.2%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +7.6%

Draw 17.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -21.1%

O'Higgins (A) 20.2%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -10.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

U. Catolica face O'Higgins in Chile - Primera División on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives U. Catolica a 62% chance, the draw 18% and O'Higgins 20%, so U. Catolica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.8 for U. Catolica and 1.2 for O'Higgins (4.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, U. Catolica are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.20 for O'Higgins. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +67.4%. This match finished 3-2.

U. Catolica vs O'Higgins Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions