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Colo Colo vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 21 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:30

Colo Colo

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

A. Italiano

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.9%0-13.5%0-21.2%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.4%1-18.0%1-22.8%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.1%2-19.2%2-23.3%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.1%3-17.1%3-22.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.0%4+-17.0%4+-22.5%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.9% 69.4% 1.44 -6.5%

Draw 19.6% 23.8% 4.20 -10.6%

Away win 15.4% 15.6% 6.40 -0.9%

Over 2.5 59.7% 60.6% 1.65 -1.5%

Over 3.5 36.7% 38.5% 2.60 -4.6%

BTTS 52.7% 57.8% 1.73 -8.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 66.7% 1.50 -1.3%

Away O1.5 18.2% 25.3% 3.95 -16.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.7%

H 65% / xG 2.3-0.7 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–1 8.0%

#3 1–0 11.4%

#4 3–0 10.1%

#5 2–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Colo Colo2.3

A. Italiano0.7

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COLO COLO · PPG 2.20

A. ITALIANO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.60 for Home, form 2.20 vs 0.67 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Colo Colo (H) 64.9%

ODDS 1.44 · IMPLIED 69.4% EV -6.5%

Draw 19.6%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -10.6%

A. Italiano (A) 15.4%

ODDS 6.40 · IMPLIED 15.6% EV -0.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Colo Colo face A. Italiano in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Colo Colo a 65% chance, the draw 20% and A. Italiano 15%, so Colo Colo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Colo Colo and 0.7 for A. Italiano (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Colo Colo are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 0.67 for A. Italiano. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +5.4%. This match finished 5-1.

Colo Colo vs A. Italiano Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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