Today / Chile - Primera División / Deportes Limache vs Nublense

Deportes Limache vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 17 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 00:30

Deportes Limache

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWL

UPCOMING

Nublense

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.2% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+12.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-15.2%0-23.5%0-31.6%0-4+0.7%1 1-07.4%1-19.9%1-26.7%1-33.0%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-19.5%2-26.4%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-04.5%3-16.0%3-24.0%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-14.4%4+-23.0%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.4% 44.2% 2.26 +4.9%

Draw 23.7% 29.0% 3.45 -10.9%

Away win 29.8% 35.7% 2.80 -9.9%

Over 2.5 62.2% 55.6% 1.80 +12.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 33.9% 2.95 +18.6%

BTTS 61.5% 62.5% 1.60 -1.6%

Home O1.5 55.8% 47.6% 2.10 +17.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 41.7% 2.40 +1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 46% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.9%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.7%

#4 2–0 7.0%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Limache1.9

Nublense1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.2% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES LIMACHE · PPG 1.67

NUBLENSE · PPG 1.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.56 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Limache (H) 46.4%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +4.9%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.9%

Nublense (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -9.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Limache face Nublense in Chile - Primera División on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Limache a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Nublense 30%, so Deportes Limache are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Deportes Limache and 1.3 for Nublense (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Limache are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.78 for Nublense. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +26.4%.

Deportes Limache vs Nublense Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Primera División Predictions