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Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Matchday 20 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 16:00

Concepción

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Coquimbo Unido

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.4 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.1% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.7%0-19.0%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.2%1-112.7%1-26.6%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.6%2-18.9%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.2%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.9% 34.5% 2.90 +38.9%

Draw 27.1% 33.3% 3.00 -11.2%

Away win 24.9% 44.4% 2.25 -26.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 47.6% 2.10 +5.2%

Over 3.5 28.1% 26.7% 3.75 +3.2%

BTTS 50.2% 57.1% 1.75 -12.2%

Home O1.5 40.0% 36.4% 2.75 +10.0%

Away O1.5 32.4% 44.4% 2.25 -27.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 78 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 37%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 30%

ROI 5.6%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob50.2%

H 48% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 2–0 8.6%

#5 0–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Concepción1.4

Coquimbo Unido1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CONCEPCIÓN · PPG 1.70

COQUIMBO UNIDO · PPG 1.44

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 2.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Concepción (H) 47.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +38.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.2%

Coquimbo Unido (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Concepción face Coquimbo Unido in Chile - Primera División on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Concepción a 48% chance, the draw 27% and Coquimbo Unido 25%, so Concepción are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Concepción and 1.0 for Coquimbo Unido (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Concepción are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.44 for Coquimbo Unido. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +17.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Concepción vs Coquimbo Unido Prediction— Chile - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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