Leagues / CHILE / Liga de Ascenso
Liga de Ascenso
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 56 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
39.3%
1X2
22/56
44.6%
O/U 2.5
25/56
48.2%
BTTS
27/56
44.6%
Exact score
25/56
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
22
Settled
40.9%
Hit rate
9/22
1.85
Avg odds
-26.8%
ROI
-5.9u
Picks by market
HOME WIN · N=9 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.90 · -42.6% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.87 · -6.3% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -8.8% ROI
BTTS · N=3 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.74 · -44.3% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
3
Bets
67%
Hit
+6.3%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-25.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
17
Bets
35%
Hit
-32.8%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS
1 SEPT Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica Home -3% 2–0 HITAugust 2026 // 12 PICKS · 5 HIT · 7 MISS
30 AUG Deportes Iquique vs San Luis Home +8% 0–1 MISS30 AUG Deportes Copiapo vs Antofagasta BTTS -4% 0–4 MISS30 AUG Deportes Temuco vs D. Puerto Montt BTTS -12% 3–1 HIT30 AUG Curico Unido vs Recoleta BTTS -8% 0–0 MISS29 AUG Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz — NO PICK 0–0 —29 AUG Santiago Wanderers vs Magallanes HO1.5 2–1 HIT29 AUG Union Espanola vs Rangers de Talca HO1.5 0–1 MISS24 AUG San Luis vs Santiago Wanderers BTTS -10% 0–1 MISS23 AUG Antofagasta vs Deportes Temuco HO1.5 3–1 HIT23 AUG Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe Home -5% 2–0 HIT22 AUG San Marcos de Arica vs Rangers de Talca Home +5% 1–2 MISS22 AUG Recoleta vs Deportes Copiapo BTTS +2% 2–1 HIT22 AUG Magallanes vs Deportes Santa Cruz Over 2.5 +19% 1–0 MISS22 AUG D. Puerto Montt vs Deportes Iquique — NO PICK 0–4 —