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San Luis vs Santiago Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 23:30

San Luis

PPG 2.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.2%0-25.1%0-32.1%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.7%1-112.1%1-27.5%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-18.9%2-25.5%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.5%3-14.4%3-22.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.1% 51.3% 1.95 -14.0%

Draw 26.8% 29.4% 3.40 -5.3%

Away win 29.1% 29.9% 3.35 -1.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

BTTS 54.3% 60.6% 1.65 -10.4%

Home O1.5 40.1% 51.8% 1.93 -22.6%

Away O1.5 36.6% 36.4% 2.75 +0.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.3%

H 44% / xG 1.5-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 2–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 9.7%

#4 2–0 7.2%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Luis1.5

Santiago Wanderers1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN LUIS · PPG 2.20

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.80

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.23 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

San Luis (H) 44.1%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.0%

Draw 26.8%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.3%

Santiago Wanderers (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Luis face Santiago Wanderers in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Luis a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Santiago Wanderers 29%, so San Luis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for San Luis and 1.2 for Santiago Wanderers (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Luis are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.80 for Santiago Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.3%. This match finished 0-1.

San Luis vs Santiago Wanderers Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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