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Recoleta vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:30

Recoleta

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Deportes Copiapo

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-15.6%0-23.5%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-08.3%1-110.4%1-26.5%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.6%2-26.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.8%3-16.0%3-23.8%3-31.6%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-14.3%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 46.5% 2.15 +7.7%

Draw 22.9% 29.9% 3.35 -14.0%

Away win 27.0% 33.3% 3.00 -11.4%

Over 2.5 59.9% 54.1% 1.85 +10.8%

Over 3.5 36.8% 31.3% 3.20 +17.8%

BTTS 61.3% 59.9% 1.67 +2.4%

Home O1.5 54.9% 47.6% 2.10 +15.3%

Away O1.5 37.3% 38.5% 2.60 -3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.3%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 6.5%

#5 1–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Recoleta1.9

Deportes Copiapo1.3

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

RECOLETA · PPG 1.50

DEPORTES COPIAPO · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.61 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Recoleta (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +7.7%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -14.0%

Deportes Copiapo (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -11.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Recoleta face Deportes Copiapo in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Recoleta a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Deportes Copiapo 27%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Recoleta and 1.3 for Deportes Copiapo (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Recoleta are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Deportes Copiapo. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Recoleta vs Deportes Copiapo Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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