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Antofagasta vs Deportes Temuco Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:00

Antofagasta

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDDWW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 54.9% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-15.3%0-22.6%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.3%1-25.1%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.9%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.5%3-16.4%3-23.2%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.8%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 59.9% 1.67 -10.5%

Draw 23.0% 27.4% 3.65 -9.6%

Away win 23.4% 23.1% 4.33 +0.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 58.8% 1.70 +1.5%

Over 3.5 36.1% 37.0% 2.70 -2.5%

BTTS 54.7% 60.6% 1.65 -9.7%

Home O1.5 54.9% 59.9% 1.67 -8.3%

Away O1.5 29.6% 33.3% 3.00 -6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.7%

H 54% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 1–2 5.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antofagasta1.9

Deportes Temuco1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.1%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 2.00

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Antofagasta (H) 53.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -10.5%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -9.6%

Deportes Temuco (A) 23.4%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +0.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antofagasta face Deportes Temuco in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antofagasta a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Deportes Temuco 23%, so Antofagasta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Antofagasta and 1.0 for Deportes Temuco (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antofagasta are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.50 for Deportes Temuco. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.5%. This match finished 3-1.

Antofagasta vs Deportes Temuco Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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