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Deportes Iquique vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Deportes Iquique

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Luis

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.0%0-23.3%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.6%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.6%3-15.3%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.7% 48.8% 2.05 +8.0%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 23.0% 30.8% 3.25 -15.2%

Over 2.5 52.5% 57.1% 1.75 -8.1%

Over 3.5 31.0% 36.5% 2.74 -15.1%

BTTS 52.7% 60.6% 1.65 -13.0%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.8% 1.93 -5.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 38.3% 2.61 -19.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Iquique1.7

San Luis0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.0%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 1.64

SAN LUIS · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Iquique (H) 52.7%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +8.0%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

San Luis (A) 23.0%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Iquique face San Luis in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Iquique a 53% chance, the draw 24% and San Luis 23%, so Deportes Iquique are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Deportes Iquique and 0.9 for San Luis (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Iquique are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for San Luis. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +2.2%. This match finished 0-1.

Deportes Iquique vs San Luis Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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