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Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 16:30

Union San Felipe

PPG 1.44 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.7%0-25.4%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.1%1-113.2%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.1%2-18.2%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.4%3-13.4%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.2% 40.0% 2.50 +5.5%

Draw 27.9% 34.5% 2.90 -11.5%

Away win 30.0% 38.2% 2.62 -21.4%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 25.6% 28.6% 3.50 -6.2%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 34.2% 39.8% 2.51 -14.2%

Away O1.5 31.4% 38.3% 2.61 -18.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.2%

H 42% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 0–0✓ 10.6%

#4 0–1 10.7%

#5 2–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union San Felipe1.2

Deportes Santa Cruz1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 1.44

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.73

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.23, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Union San Felipe (H) 42.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +5.5%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -11.5%

Deportes Santa Cruz (A) 30.0%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union San Felipe face Deportes Santa Cruz in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union San Felipe a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Deportes Santa Cruz 30%, so Union San Felipe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Union San Felipe and 1.0 for Deportes Santa Cruz (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union San Felipe are averaging 1.44 points per game versus 0.73 for Deportes Santa Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-0.

Union San Felipe vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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