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Deportes Copiapo vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:30

Deportes Copiapo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Antofagasta

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.4%0-17.3%0-24.9%0-32.2%0-4+1.0%1 1-08.5%1-111.5%1-27.7%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.0%2-26.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.2%3 3-03.5%3-14.7%3-23.2%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.7%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 41.4% 42.6% 2.35 -2.7%

Draw 23.9% 29.4% 3.40 -11.2%

Away win 34.8% 38.2% 2.62 -8.8%

Over 2.5 59.7% 56.5% 1.77 +5.7%

Over 3.5 36.7% 33.9% 2.95 +8.3%

BTTS 59.9% 62.5% 1.60 -4.2%

Home O1.5 46.3% 47.6% 2.10 -2.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 43.5% 2.30 -5.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 44%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.9%

H 41% / xG 1.6-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 2–0 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Copiapo1.6

Antofagasta1.3

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES COPIAPO · PPG 2.00

ANTOFAGASTA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Copiapo (H) 41.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -2.7%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.2%

Antofagasta (A) 34.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -8.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Copiapo face Antofagasta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Copiapo a 41% chance, the draw 24% and Antofagasta 35%, so Deportes Copiapo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Deportes Copiapo and 1.3 for Antofagasta (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Copiapo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.18 for Antofagasta. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.3%. This match finished 0-4.

Deportes Copiapo vs Antofagasta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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