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Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 23 ·Tuesday, September 1, 2026, 00:00

Cobreloa

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWLW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.9%0-17.6%0-23.3%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-013.9%1-111.9%1-25.1%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.3%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-05.6%3-14.9%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-12.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 54.1% 1.85 -3.2%

Draw 25.1% 29.9% 3.35 -9.6%

Away win 22.6% 26.3% 3.80 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.4% 51.3% 1.95 -1.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 50.4% 55.6% 1.80 -9.3%

Home O1.5 46.3% 51.3% 1.95 -9.7%

Away O1.5 24.6% 31.3% 3.20 -12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.4%

H 52% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.9%

#2 1–1 11.9%

#3 2–0✓ 10.8%

#4 2–1 9.3%

#5 0–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cobreloa1.6

San Marcos de Arica0.9

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.4% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

COBRELOA · PPG 2.36

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cobreloa (H) 52.3%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -3.2%

Draw 25.1%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -9.6%

San Marcos de Arica (A) 22.6%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cobreloa face San Marcos de Arica in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Tuesday, September 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cobreloa a 52% chance, the draw 25% and San Marcos de Arica 23%, so Cobreloa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Cobreloa and 0.9 for San Marcos de Arica (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cobreloa are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 1.40 for San Marcos de Arica. This match finished 2-0.

Cobreloa vs San Marcos de Arica Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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