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Deportes Temuco vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Deportes Temuco

PPG 1.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-17.9%0-24.0%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.0%1-112.1%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.2%2-19.4%2-24.7%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.7%3-14.8%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.6%4+-21.3%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 50.0% 2.00 -2.0%

Draw 25.5% 32.3% 3.10 -12.6%

Away win 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -7.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 54.1% 1.85 -6.6%

Over 3.5 30.2% 33.7% 2.97 -10.3%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 43.7% 50.5% 1.98 -13.5%

Away O1.5 32.4% 35.2% 2.84 -8.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 49% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 12.0%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportes Temuco1.5

D. Puerto Montt1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTES TEMUCO · PPG 1.00

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Deportes Temuco (H) 49.0%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.0%

Draw 25.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.6%

D. Puerto Montt (A) 25.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportes Temuco face D. Puerto Montt in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportes Temuco a 49% chance, the draw 26% and D. Puerto Montt 26%, so Deportes Temuco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Deportes Temuco and 1.0 for D. Puerto Montt (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportes Temuco are averaging 1.00 points per game versus 1.20 for D. Puerto Montt. This match finished 3-1.

Deportes Temuco vs D. Puerto Montt Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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