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San Marcos de Arica vs Rangers de Talca Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 00:30

San Marcos de Arica

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Rangers de Talca

PPG 0.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLWW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 59.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-15.1%0-21.3%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.3%1-19.1%1-22.3%1-30.4%1-4+0.1%2 2-016.2%2-18.1%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-09.6%3-14.8%3-21.2%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-13.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.4% 56.5% 1.77 +5.1%

Draw 23.7% 29.0% 3.45 -10.9%

Away win 16.9% 24.4% 4.10 -18.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 51.3% 1.95 -2.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 29.0% 3.45 -1.8%

BTTS 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 52.6% 1.90 -7.3%

Away O1.5 16.4% 29.0% 3.45 -26.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob47.6%

H 59% / xG 1.8-0.5 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.3%

#2 2–0 16.2%

#3 0–0 10.3%

#4 1–1 9.1%

#5 3–0 9.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

San Marcos de Arica1.8

Rangers de Talca0.5

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

SAN MARCOS DE ARICA · PPG 1.60

RANGERS DE TALCA · PPG 0.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

San Marcos de Arica (H) 59.4%

ODDS 1.77 · IMPLIED 56.5% EV +5.1%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.9%

Rangers de Talca (A) 16.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -18.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

San Marcos de Arica face Rangers de Talca in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives San Marcos de Arica a 59% chance, the draw 24% and Rangers de Talca 17%, so San Marcos de Arica are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for San Marcos de Arica and 0.5 for Rangers de Talca (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, San Marcos de Arica are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.22 for Rangers de Talca. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.3%. This match finished 1-2.

San Marcos de Arica vs Rangers de Talca Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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