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Magallanes vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

Magallanes

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Deportes Santa Cruz

PPG 0.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.3% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a clear edge.

+19.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.5%0-21.6%0-30.7%0-4+0.3%1 1-05.1%1-16.6%1-24.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.8%2-18.8%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.0%3 3-06.0%3-17.8%3-25.0%3-32.2%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-07.5%4+-19.8%4+-26.3%4+-32.7%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.8% 55.6% 1.80 +2.2%

Draw 20.4% 27.8% 3.60 -15.9%

Away win 22.8% 27.0% 3.70 -9.4%

Over 2.5 67.3% 56.5% 1.77 +19.1%

Over 3.5 47.1% 33.9% 2.95 +39.0%

BTTS 63.2% 59.9% 1.67 +5.5%

Home O1.5 65.1% 55.6% 1.80 +17.2%

Away O1.5 37.5% 34.5% 2.90 +8.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.2%

H 57% / xG 2.6-1.3 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 6.6%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 3–1 7.8%

#4 1–2 4.3%

#5 2–2 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magallanes2.6

Deportes Santa Cruz1.3

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.3% · O3.5 PROB 47.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.56

DEPORTES SANTA CRUZ · PPG 0.80

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Magallanes (H) 56.8%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV +2.2%

Draw 20.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -15.9%

Deportes Santa Cruz (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -9.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magallanes face Deportes Santa Cruz in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magallanes a 57% chance, the draw 20% and Deportes Santa Cruz 23%, so Magallanes are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Magallanes and 1.3 for Deportes Santa Cruz (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magallanes are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 0.80 for Deportes Santa Cruz. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 1-0.

Magallanes vs Deportes Santa Cruz Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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