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Curico Unido vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 23 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:30

Curico Unido

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Recoleta

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-19.3%0-26.1%0-32.7%0-4+1.2%1 1-09.4%1-112.4%1-28.2%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.3%2-18.3%2-25.4%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.8%3-13.7%3-22.4%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 45.5% 2.20 -19.5%

Draw 24.8% 29.9% 3.35 -10.2%

Away win 38.6% 34.7% 2.88 +11.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.1% 1.85 -1.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 31.3% 3.20 +0.8%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 37.5% 47.6% 2.10 -21.3%

Away O1.5 40.9% 39.2% 2.55 +4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

A 39% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–2 8.2%

#3 2–1 8.3%

#4 0–1 9.3%

#5 1–0 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curico Unido1.3

Recoleta1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 1.36

RECOLETA · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Curico Unido (H) 36.6%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -19.5%

Draw 24.8%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.2%

Recoleta (A) 38.6%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV +11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curico Unido face Recoleta in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curico Unido a 37% chance, the draw 25% and Recoleta 39%, so Recoleta are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Curico Unido and 1.3 for Recoleta (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curico Unido are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 1.20 for Recoleta. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Curico Unido vs Recoleta Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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