Today / Chile - Liga de Ascenso / Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe

Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 23:30

Curico Unido

PPG 1.20 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLWD

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Union San Felipe

PPG 0.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 49.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.2%0-22.9%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.6%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.6%2-19.3%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-15.0%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.7% 52.4% 1.91 -5.1%

Draw 25.4% 30.3% 3.30 -9.7%

Away win 24.9% 27.8% 3.60 -6.2%

Over 2.5 48.7% 51.8% 1.93 -6.0%

Over 3.5 28.1% 30.3% 3.30 -4.4%

BTTS 47.6% 57.8% 1.73 -17.6%

Home O1.5 47.4% 51.3% 1.95 -7.6%

Away O1.5 22.5% 33.3% 3.00 -19.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.6%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 49% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 1–0 14.4%

#3 2–0✓ 11.6%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Curico Unido1.6

Union San Felipe0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.7% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CURICO UNIDO · PPG 1.20

UNION SAN FELIPE · PPG 0.64

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.81 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Curico Unido (H) 49.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -5.1%

Draw 25.4%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -9.7%

Union San Felipe (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -6.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Curico Unido face Union San Felipe in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Curico Unido a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Union San Felipe 25%, so Curico Unido are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Curico Unido and 0.8 for Union San Felipe (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 49% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Curico Unido are averaging 1.20 points per game versus 0.64 for Union San Felipe. This match finished 2-0.

Curico Unido vs Union San Felipe Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

More Chile - Liga de Ascenso Predictions