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Santiago Wanderers vs Magallanes Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 23 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

Santiago Wanderers

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Magallanes

PPG 1.64 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 49.3% — a clear edge.

+33.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.1%0-13.6%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.1%1-18.3%1-24.9%1-31.9%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.2%2-19.6%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.3%3-17.4%3-24.3%3-31.7%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-17.4%4+-24.3%4+-31.7%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 46.5% 2.15 +15.2%

Draw 22.5% 32.3% 3.10 -18.1%

Away win 23.9% 33.3% 3.00 -17.0%

Over 2.5 62.4% 54.1% 1.85 +15.4%

Over 3.5 39.3% 35.3% 2.83 +11.2%

BTTS 60.1% 60.6% 1.65 -0.8%

Home O1.5 65.8% 49.3% 2.03 +33.6%

Away O1.5 33.0% 39.2% 2.55 -15.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.1%

H 54% / xG 2.3-1.2 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 60%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.3%

#2 2–1✓ 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–2 4.9%

#5 3–1 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Santiago Wanderers2.3

Magallanes1.2

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

SANTIAGO WANDERERS · PPG 1.70

MAGALLANES · PPG 1.64

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Santiago Wanderers (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +15.2%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.1%

Magallanes (A) 23.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -17.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Santiago Wanderers face Magallanes in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Santiago Wanderers a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Magallanes 24%, so Santiago Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Santiago Wanderers and 1.2 for Magallanes (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 60% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Santiago Wanderers are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.64 for Magallanes. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +41.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Santiago Wanderers vs Magallanes Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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