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D. Puerto Montt vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Matchday 22 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 19:00

D. Puerto Montt

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLL

0 – 4

FULL TIME

Deportes Iquique

PPG 0.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.4%0-17.6%0-23.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.5%1-111.9%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.2%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.8%3-14.8%3-21.9%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-12.6%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.6% 40.8% 2.45 +16.6%

Draw 25.9% 33.3% 3.00 -13.4%

Away win 26.5% 38.2% 2.62 -18.3%

Over 2.5 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Over 3.5 28.1% 33.7% 2.97 -9.9%

BTTS 48.3% 59.9% 1.67 -19.3%

Home O1.5 44.7% 43.7% 2.29 +2.4%

Away O1.5 22.5% 41.7% 2.40 -27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 56 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 45%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 45%

ROI -26.8%

Bet Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.3%

H 48% / xG 1.6-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.9%

#2 1–0 14.5%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 9.4%

#5 0–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

D. Puerto Montt1.6

Deportes Iquique0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

D. PUERTO MONTT · PPG 1.90

DEPORTES IQUIQUE · PPG 0.44

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.74 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

D. Puerto Montt (H) 47.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +16.6%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.4%

Deportes Iquique (A) 26.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

D. Puerto Montt face Deportes Iquique in Chile - Liga de Ascenso on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives D. Puerto Montt a 48% chance, the draw 26% and Deportes Iquique 27%, so D. Puerto Montt are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for D. Puerto Montt and 0.8 for Deportes Iquique (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, D. Puerto Montt are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.44 for Deportes Iquique. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +2.4%. This match finished 0-4.

D. Puerto Montt vs Deportes Iquique Prediction— Chile - Liga de Ascenso

Match Preview & Prediction

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