Serie A
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 68 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
51.5%
1X2
35/68
47.1%
O/U 2.5
32/68
54.4%
BTTS
37/68
52.9%
Exact score
36/68
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
55
Settled
50.9%
Hit rate
28/55
1.85
Avg odds
-6.3%
ROI
-3.5u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=25 52.0% HIT · AVG 1.83 · -5.4% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=15 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.92 · +16.6% ROI
HOME WIN · N=13 46.2% HIT · AVG 1.84 · -20.1% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -100.0% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.33 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-53.6%
ROI
✓ Solid
13
Bets
62%
Hit
+10.5%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
6
Bets
67%
Hit
+35.8%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
31
Bets
48%
Hit
-13.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 5 PICKS · 3 HIT · 2 MISS
17 JUL Bahia vs Chapecoense Over 2.5 -1% 2–0 MISS17 JUL Mirassol vs Gremio BTTS -3% 2–1 HIT17 JUL Fluminense vs Bragantino Over 2.5 +13% 1–1 MISS16 JUL Botafogo vs Santos Over 2.5 +23% 2–1 HIT16 JUL Vitoria vs Vasco da Gama Home +27% 1–0 HITMay 2026 // 8 PICKS · 4 HIT · 4 MISS
31 MAY Bragantino vs Internacional — NO PICK 3–1 —31 MAY Vasco da Gama vs Atletico MG BTTS -3% 0–1 MISS31 MAY Palmeiras vs Chapecoense HO1.5 1–0 MISS31 MAY Cruzeiro vs Fluminense BTTS +2% 1–1 HIT31 MAY Remo vs Sao Paulo BTTS -3% 1–0 MISS30 MAY Flamengo vs Coritiba BTTS +0% 3–0 MISS30 MAY Athletico PR vs Mirassol Home -5% 1–0 HIT30 MAY Gremio vs Corinthians — NO PICK 1–3 —30 MAY Bahia vs Botafogo Over 2.5 +9% 2–1 HIT30 MAY Santos vs Vitoria BTTS +2% 3–1 HIT