Serie A
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 132 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
43.2%
1X2
57/132
46.2%
O/U 2.5
61/132
55.3%
BTTS
73/132
49.2%
Exact score
65/132
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
60
Settled
55.0%
Hit rate
33/60
1.91
Avg odds
+2.0%
ROI
+1.2u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=23 47.8% HIT · AVG 1.94 · -8.1% ROI
BTTS · N=19 68.4% HIT · AVG 1.85 · +26.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=13 53.8% HIT · AVG 1.95 · -5.1% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=4 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.91 · -6.3% ROI
AWAY WIN · N=1 0.0% HIT · AVG 1.81 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-42.0%
ROI
✓ Solid
15
Bets
60%
Hit
+4.3%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
31
Bets
55%
Hit
+5.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
10
Bets
60%
Hit
+6.2%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
September 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS
2 SEPT Flamengo vs Mirassol Home -7% 2–0 HITAugust 2026 // 13 PICKS · 11 HIT · 2 MISS
31 AUG Remo vs Coritiba BTTS +1% 2–3 HIT30 AUG Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro BTTS -6% 3–1 HIT30 AUG Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense BTTS +1% 3–3 HIT30 AUG Corinthians vs Santos Over 2.5 +9% 0–1 MISS30 AUG Flamengo vs Botafogo Home -8% 3–0 HIT30 AUG Mirassol vs Palmeiras BTTS -2% 1–1 HIT30 AUG Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc HO1.5 3–1 HIT30 AUG Bahia vs Internacional Home -1% 3–2 HIT29 AUG Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Home +6% 2–1 HIT29 AUG Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino — NO PICK 2–1 —24 AUG Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense BTTS -4% 2–3 HIT23 AUG Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Home +3% 4–1 HIT23 AUG RB Bragantino vs Gremio Home -8% 1–0 HIT23 AUG Vitoria vs Bahia BTTS -10% 0–2 MISS