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Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Sao Paulo

PPG 1.80 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDLW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

RB Bragantino

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.9%0-110.3%0-24.5%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.0%1-113.0%1-25.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.5%2-18.2%2-23.6%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.0%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 44.2% 2.26 +1.0%

Draw 27.2% 30.8% 3.25 -7.0%

Away win 28.1% 31.7% 3.15 -6.9%

Over 2.5 43.1% 47.6% 2.10 -9.5%

Over 3.5 20.7% 26.3% 3.80 -12.8%

BTTS 47.2% 55.6% 1.80 -15.0%

Home O1.5 37.1% 42.6% 2.35 -12.8%

Away O1.5 24.9% 33.9% 2.95 -15.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob47.2%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.9 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.0%

#2 1–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 11.9%

#4 0–1 10.3%

#5 2–0 9.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sao Paulo1.3

RB Bragantino0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SAO PAULO · PPG 1.80

RB BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.36

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.39, combined xG 2.13 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sao Paulo (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.26 · IMPLIED 44.2% EV +1.0%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.0%

RB Bragantino (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -6.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sao Paulo face RB Bragantino in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sao Paulo a 45% chance, the draw 27% and RB Bragantino 28%, so Sao Paulo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Sao Paulo and 0.9 for RB Bragantino (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sao Paulo are averaging 1.80 points per game versus 1.36 for RB Bragantino. This match finished 2-1.

Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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