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Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Palmeiras

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWD

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vasco DA Gama

PPG 0.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 65.8% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-13.5%0-21.1%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-012.6%1-17.9%1-22.5%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.2%2-18.9%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.7%3-16.7%3-22.1%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-16.4%4+-22.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 65.8% 63.7% 1.57 +3.3%

Draw 20.2% 26.3% 3.80 -13.9%

Away win 14.1% 20.0% 5.00 -17.7%

Over 2.5 53.9% 54.1% 1.85 -0.3%

Over 3.5 31.6% 31.3% 3.20 +1.1%

BTTS 47.6% 54.6% 1.83 -12.9%

Home O1.5 65.1% 59.9% 1.67 +8.7%

Away O1.5 16.9% 23.1% 4.33 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob47.6%

H 66% / xG 2.3-0.6 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.2%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 3–0 10.7%

#4 1–1 7.9%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Palmeiras2.3

Vasco DA Gama0.6

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.18

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 0.50

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.63 for Home, form 2.18 vs 0.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Palmeiras (H) 65.8%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV +3.3%

Draw 20.2%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -13.9%

Vasco DA Gama (A) 14.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Palmeiras face Vasco DA Gama in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Palmeiras a 66% chance, the draw 20% and Vasco DA Gama 14%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Palmeiras and 0.6 for Vasco DA Gama (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Palmeiras are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.50 for Vasco DA Gama. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +8.7%. This match finished 4-1.

Palmeiras vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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