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Corinthians vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Corinthians

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Santos

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.3 puts the goal expectation near the line. Model probability 50.5% vs bookmaker-implied 46.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-18.1%0-23.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.4%1-112.0%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-18.9%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.4%3-21.7%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 54.6% 1.83 -8.3%

Draw 26.5% 29.4% 3.40 -5.9%

Away win 23.5% 22.7% 4.40 +2.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 40.1% 48.8% 2.05 -17.8%

Away O1.5 23.0% 26.0% 3.85 -6.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.2%

H 50% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.0%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 10.4%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Corinthians1.5

Santos0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CORINTHIANS · PPG 1.50

SANTOS · PPG 0.70

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.70 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Corinthians (H) 50.1%

ODDS 1.83 · IMPLIED 54.6% EV -8.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.9%

Santos (A) 23.5%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Corinthians face Santos in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Corinthians a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Santos 24%, so Corinthians are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Corinthians and 0.8 for Santos (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Corinthians are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 0.70 for Santos. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 0-1.

Corinthians vs Santos Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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