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Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 23:00

Botafogo

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-18.6%0-25.0%0-31.9%0-4+0.7%1 1-010.7%1-112.4%1-27.2%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-07.7%2-19.0%2-25.2%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.7%3-14.3%3-22.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.1%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.4% 45.5% 2.20 -6.7%

Draw 27.7% 32.3% 3.10 -8.5%

Away win 29.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.4%

Over 2.5 50.5% 48.8% 2.05 +3.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 26.7% 3.75 +4.6%

BTTS 52.7% 54.6% 1.83 -3.6%

Home O1.5 40.1% 45.5% 2.20 -11.8%

Away O1.5 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob52.7%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 2–1 9.0%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 2–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Botafogo1.4

Atletico Paranaense1.2

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.60

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.29 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Botafogo (H) 42.4%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -6.7%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -8.5%

Atletico Paranaense (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Botafogo face Atletico Paranaense in Brazil - Serie A on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Botafogo a 42% chance, the draw 28% and Atletico Paranaense 30%, so Botafogo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Botafogo and 1.2 for Atletico Paranaense (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Botafogo are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.27 for Atletico Paranaense. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +8.6%. This match finished 2-3.

Botafogo vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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