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Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 21:30

Atletico-MG

PPG 1.90 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Vitoria

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 61.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+6.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.7%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-012.9%1-19.5%1-23.5%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-19.5%2-23.5%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-16.4%3-22.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-06.9%4+-15.1%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.3% 57.8% 1.73 +6.0%

Draw 22.5% 27.8% 3.60 -11.4%

Away win 16.2% 21.3% 4.70 -14.3%

Over 2.5 53.4% 50.0% 2.00 +6.8%

Over 3.5 31.5% 28.2% 3.55 +11.8%

BTTS 49.2% 52.6% 1.90 -6.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 54.1% 1.85 +4.2%

Away O1.5 18.2% 26.3% 3.80 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.2%

H 61% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 53% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.9%

#2 1–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 12.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico-MG2.0

Vitoria0.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO-MG · PPG 1.90

VITORIA · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.27 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico-MG (H) 61.3%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV +6.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.4%

Vitoria (A) 16.2%

ODDS 4.70 · IMPLIED 21.3% EV -14.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico-MG face Vitoria in Brazil - Serie A on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico-MG a 61% chance, the draw 23% and Vitoria 16%, so Atletico-MG are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Atletico-MG and 0.7 for Vitoria (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico-MG are averaging 1.90 points per game versus 0.33 for Vitoria. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +11.8%. This match finished 2-1.

Atletico-MG vs Vitoria Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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