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Remo vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 23:00

Remo

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Coritiba

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.0%0-25.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.7%1 1-011.3%1-112.6%1-27.0%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.0%2-18.9%2-24.9%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.7%3-14.2%3-22.3%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.0%4+-21.1%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 46.5% 2.15 -5.6%

Draw 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

Away win 29.9% 29.0% 3.45 +1.9%

Over 2.5 52.3% 45.5% 2.20 +15.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 23.8% 4.20 +32.7%

BTTS 54.6% 54.1% 1.85 +1.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 43.5% 2.30 -8.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 30.8% 3.25 +7.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.6%

H 44% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.6%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 0–0 8.1%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Remo1.4

Coritiba1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.3% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

REMO · PPG 1.27

CORITIBA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.30 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Remo (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -5.6%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -9.7%

Coritiba (A) 29.9%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Remo face Coritiba in Brazil - Serie A on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Remo a 44% chance, the draw 26% and Coritiba 30%, so Remo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Remo and 1.1 for Coritiba (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Remo are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.33 for Coritiba. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +32.7%. This match finished 2-3.

Remo vs Coritiba Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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