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Flamengo vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 4 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 22:30

Flamengo

PPG 2.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

UPCOMING

Mirassol

PPG 0.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 74.0% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-12.8%0-20.9%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-010.9%1-17.0%1-22.2%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-18.7%2-22.8%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-011.2%3-17.2%3-22.3%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-012.5%4+-18.0%4+-22.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.0% 80.0% 1.25 -7.5%

Draw 16.8% 16.9% 5.90 -0.5%

Away win 9.2% 9.8% 10.25 -3.4%

Over 2.5 61.9% 62.5% 1.60 -1.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 40.8% 2.45 -1.5%

BTTS 50.4% 47.6% 2.10 +5.8%

Home O1.5 66.3% 75.2% 1.33 -11.8%

Away O1.5 17.3% 17.4% 5.75 -0.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 62%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.5 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob50.4%

H 74% / xG 2.5-0.6 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 3–0 11.2%

#3 1–0 10.9%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 1–1 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo2.5

Mirassol0.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.9% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.18

MIRASSOL · PPG 0.55

✓ SOLID - Strong home form

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.84 for Home, form 2.18 vs 0.55 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo (H) 74.0%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -7.5%

Draw 16.8%

ODDS 5.90 · IMPLIED 16.9% EV -0.5%

Mirassol (A) 9.2%

ODDS 10.25 · IMPLIED 9.8% EV -3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Mirassol in Brazil - Serie A on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 74% chance, the draw 17% and Mirassol 9%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.5 for Flamengo and 0.6 for Mirassol (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.18 points per game versus 0.55 for Mirassol. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +12.4%.

Flamengo vs Mirassol Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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