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Bahia vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 22:30

Bahia

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Internacional

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 51.9% vs bookmaker-implied 52.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-17.6%0-22.9%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.5%1-111.7%1-24.4%1-31.1%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.0%2-19.0%2-23.4%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.2%3-14.7%3-21.8%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.5%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.9% 52.6% 1.90 -1.4%

Draw 26.5% 28.6% 3.50 -4.3%

Away win 21.6% 25.6% 3.90 -9.5%

Over 2.5 44.8% 54.1% 1.85 -17.1%

Over 3.5 26.2% 31.3% 3.20 -9.7%

BTTS 47.2% 57.8% 1.73 -18.3%

Home O1.5 44.1% 52.4% 1.91 -15.8%

Away O1.5 20.7% 32.3% 3.10 -21.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.5%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 12.0%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bahia1.5

Internacional0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BAHIA · PPG 1.50

INTERNACIONAL · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.79 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Bahia (H) 51.9%

ODDS 1.90 · IMPLIED 52.6% EV -1.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -4.3%

Internacional (A) 21.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bahia face Internacional in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bahia a 52% chance, the draw 27% and Internacional 22%, so Bahia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Bahia and 0.8 for Internacional (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bahia are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.00 for Internacional. This match finished 3-2.

Bahia vs Internacional Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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