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RB Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

RB Bragantino

PPG 1.55 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWL

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Gremio

PPG 0.36 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.1% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.7%0-16.8%0-22.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-015.8%1-111.1%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.8%2-19.1%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.0%3-14.9%3-21.7%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.1%4+-12.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.1% 57.8% 1.73 -8.1%

Draw 24.7% 28.6% 3.50 -8.1%

Away win 22.2% 22.7% 4.40 -1.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 54.1% 1.85 -7.3%

Over 3.5 28.0% 31.3% 3.20 -6.2%

BTTS 47.6% 55.6% 1.80 -14.3%

Home O1.5 47.4% 55.6% 1.80 -14.7%

Away O1.5 17.9% 26.7% 3.75 -19.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 53% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 15.8%

#2 2–0 12.8%

#3 1–1 11.1%

#4 0–0 9.7%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

RB Bragantino1.6

Gremio0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RB BRAGANTINO · PPG 1.55

GREMIO · PPG 0.36

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

RB Bragantino (H) 53.1%

ODDS 1.73 · IMPLIED 57.8% EV -8.1%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.1%

Gremio (A) 22.2%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV -1.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

RB Bragantino face Gremio in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives RB Bragantino a 53% chance, the draw 25% and Gremio 22%, so RB Bragantino are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for RB Bragantino and 0.7 for Gremio (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, RB Bragantino are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 0.36 for Gremio. This match finished 1-0.

RB Bragantino vs Gremio Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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