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Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 24 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Vitoria

PPG 2.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Bahia

PPG 1.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.6%0-19.2%0-24.9%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.9%1-112.7%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.8%2-24.7%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-03.8%3-14.0%3-22.2%3-30.8%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 40.0% 2.50 +5.3%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 31.4% 38.2% 2.62 -17.7%

Over 2.5 50.1% 52.6% 1.90 -4.8%

Over 3.5 28.2% 31.3% 3.20 -5.9%

BTTS 53.0% 58.8% 1.70 -9.9%

Home O1.5 38.2% 40.0% 2.50 -4.5%

Away O1.5 34.6% 38.2% 2.62 -9.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob53.0%

H 42% / xG 1.4-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–0 8.6%

#4 2–1 8.8%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vitoria1.4

Bahia1.1

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

VITORIA · PPG 2.27

BAHIA · PPG 1.45

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.45 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vitoria (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +5.3%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Bahia (A) 31.4%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -17.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vitoria face Bahia in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vitoria a 42% chance, the draw 27% and Bahia 31%, so Vitoria are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vitoria and 1.1 for Bahia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vitoria are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.45 for Bahia. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +5.2%. This match finished 0-2.

Vitoria vs Bahia Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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