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Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Atletico Paranaense

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DWDWD

3 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Fluminense

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 52.4% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.5%0-16.9%0-22.8%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.1%1-111.4%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.7%2-19.4%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.5%3-15.2%3-22.1%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.9%4+-13.1%4+-21.3%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 46.5% 2.15 +13.1%

Draw 24.2% 31.3% 3.20 -13.5%

Away win 23.3% 29.0% 3.45 -11.8%

Over 2.5 51.1% 44.4% 2.25 +15.0%

Over 3.5 30.7% 23.8% 4.20 +28.9%

BTTS 52.7% 52.4% 1.91 +0.7%

Home O1.5 48.9% 42.6% 2.35 +14.9%

Away O1.5 23.5% 30.3% 3.30 -13.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.1%

#2 1–1 11.4%

#3 2–0 11.7%

#4 0–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Paranaense1.7

Fluminense0.8

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.1% · O3.5 PROB 30.7%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO PARANAENSE · PPG 2.25

FLUMINENSE · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.85 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Paranaense (H) 52.6%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +13.1%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.5%

Fluminense (A) 23.3%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Paranaense face Fluminense in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Paranaense a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Fluminense 23%, so Atletico Paranaense are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.8 for Fluminense (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Paranaense are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.00 for Fluminense. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +28.9%. This match finished 3-3.

Atletico Paranaense vs Fluminense Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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