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Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:30

Gremio

PPG 1.91 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Chapecoense-sc

PPG 0.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-14.8%0-22.0%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.8%1-19.7%1-24.0%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.9%2-19.8%2-24.0%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.0%3-16.6%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-15.2%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.4% 65.8% 1.52 -15.8%

Draw 22.2% 25.0% 4.00 -6.7%

Away win 22.4% 16.0% 6.25 +24.0%

Over 2.5 53.5% 54.6% 1.83 -2.1%

Over 3.5 33.8% 33.3% 3.00 +1.4%

BTTS 52.7% 54.1% 1.85 -2.5%

Home O1.5 56.3% 61.7% 1.62 -8.8%

Away O1.5 23.5% 23.8% 4.20 -0.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.7%

H 55% / xG 2.0-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–0 11.9%

#3 1–0 11.8%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 5.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gremio2.0

Chapecoense-sc0.8

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GREMIO · PPG 1.91

CHAPECOENSE-SC · PPG 0.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.19 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Gremio (H) 55.4%

ODDS 1.52 · IMPLIED 65.8% EV -15.8%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.7%

Chapecoense-sc (A) 22.4%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +24.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gremio face Chapecoense-sc in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gremio a 55% chance, the draw 22% and Chapecoense-sc 22%, so Gremio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Gremio and 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gremio are averaging 1.91 points per game versus 0.27 for Chapecoense-sc. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.4%. This match finished 3-1.

Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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