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Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Flamengo

PPG 2.10 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Botafogo

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLLL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 66.0% vs bookmaker-implied 71.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-12.8%0-21.3%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-07.8%1-17.2%1-23.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.0%2-19.3%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.6%3-17.9%3-23.7%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-010.2%4+-19.4%4+-24.4%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 66.0% 71.4% 1.40 -7.6%

Draw 18.4% 22.2% 4.50 -10.3%

Away win 15.7% 13.3% 7.50 +10.7%

Over 2.5 64.2% 61.7% 1.62 +4.0%

Over 3.5 43.2% 39.2% 2.55 +10.2%

BTTS 55.0% 55.6% 1.80 -1.0%

Home O1.5 65.8% 69.0% 1.45 -4.6%

Away O1.5 25.7% 25.0% 4.00 +1.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 59%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)2.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob55.0%

H 66% / xG 2.6-0.9 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.0%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–1 7.2%

#4 3–0✓ 8.6%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flamengo2.6

Botafogo0.9

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FLAMENGO · PPG 2.10

BOTAFOGO · PPG 1.17

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.64 for Home, form 2.10 vs 1.17 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Flamengo (H) 66.0%

ODDS 1.40 · IMPLIED 71.4% EV -7.6%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -10.3%

Botafogo (A) 15.7%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flamengo face Botafogo in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flamengo a 66% chance, the draw 18% and Botafogo 16%, so Flamengo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.6 for Flamengo and 0.9 for Botafogo (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flamengo are averaging 2.10 points per game versus 1.17 for Botafogo. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +13.5%. This match finished 3-0.

Flamengo vs Botafogo Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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