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Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 21:30

Mirassol

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Palmeiras

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-111.3%0-29.3%0-35.2%0-4+3.1%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.6%2-16.0%2-25.0%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.2%3-12.1%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.7%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.2% 27.0% 3.70 -6.3%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 51.6% 49.5% 2.02 +4.2%

Over 2.5 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Over 3.5 33.9% 27.0% 3.70 +25.4%

BTTS 54.6% 55.6% 1.80 -1.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 31.3% 3.20 -1.1%

Away O1.5 47.9% 47.6% 2.10 +0.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob54.6%

A 52% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.6%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 0–2 9.3%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mirassol1.0

Palmeiras1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 33.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MIRASSOL · PPG 1.50

PALMEIRAS · PPG 2.00

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.63 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Mirassol (H) 24.2%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -6.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

Palmeiras (A) 51.6%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mirassol face Palmeiras in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mirassol a 24% chance, the draw 24% and Palmeiras 52%, so Palmeiras are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Mirassol and 1.7 for Palmeiras (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mirassol are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.00 for Palmeiras. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +25.4%. This match finished 1-1.

Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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