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Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Matchday 25 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:20

Vasco DA Gama

PPG 1.42 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLLW

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Cruzeiro

PPG 1.55 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-18.7%0-25.7%0-32.5%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.3%1-112.2%1-28.0%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.6%2-18.6%2-25.6%2-32.4%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.1%3-14.0%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.9%4+-21.3%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.3% 42.7% 2.34 -15.1%

Draw 24.6% 30.8% 3.25 -12.0%

Away win 39.1% 33.6% 2.98 +16.5%

Over 2.5 53.5% 50.0% 2.00 +7.0%

Over 3.5 31.5% 28.6% 3.50 +10.3%

BTTS 54.3% 57.8% 1.73 -6.1%

Home O1.5 40.0% 43.5% 2.30 -8.0%

Away O1.5 39.0% 37.0% 2.70 +5.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 131 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 47%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 49%

ROI 2.0%

Bet Hit 55%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.3%

A 39% / xG 1.4-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.6%

#4 0–1 8.7%

#5 1–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vasco DA Gama1.4

Cruzeiro1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

VASCO DA GAMA · PPG 1.42

CRUZEIRO · PPG 1.55

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vasco DA Gama (H) 36.3%

ODDS 2.34 · IMPLIED 42.7% EV -15.1%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -12.0%

Cruzeiro (A) 39.1%

ODDS 2.98 · IMPLIED 33.6% EV +16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vasco DA Gama face Cruzeiro in Brazil - Serie A on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vasco DA Gama a 36% chance, the draw 25% and Cruzeiro 39%, so Cruzeiro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Vasco DA Gama and 1.3 for Cruzeiro (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.42 points per game versus 1.55 for Cruzeiro. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +10.3%. This match finished 3-1.

Vasco DA Gama vs Cruzeiro Prediction— Brazil - Serie A

Match Preview & Prediction

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