Leagues / AUSTRALIA / Tasmania NPL
Tasmania NPL
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 42 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
73.8%
1X2
31/42
66.7%
O/U 2.5
28/42
59.5%
BTTS
25/42
33.3%
Exact score
14/42
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
39
Settled
71.8%
Hit rate
28/39
1.25
Avg odds
-8.8%
ROI
-3.4u
Picks by market
OVER 2.5 · N=20 65.0% HIT · AVG 1.27 · -16.6% ROI
AWAY O1.5 · N=8 75.0% HIT · AVG 1.23 · -4.6% ROI
HOME O1.5 · N=6 66.7% HIT · AVG 1.15 · -22.2% ROI
HOME WIN · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.21 · +21.0% ROI
BTTS · N=2 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.29 · +29.0% ROI
OVER 3.5 · N=1 100.0% HIT · AVG 1.60 · +60.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
100%
Hit
+54.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
13
Bets
77%
Hit
-10.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
7
Bets
71%
Hit
+2.6%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
17
Bets
65%
Hit
-19.9%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
July 2026 // 14 PICKS · 10 HIT · 4 MISS
19 JUL Ulverstone vs Glenorchy K. Over 2.5 -14% 0–2 MISS19 JUL South East Utd vs Launceston Utd BTTS -22% 4–1 HIT18 JUL Devonport vs South Hobart Over 2.5 -8% 1–3 HIT18 JUL Riverside vs Clarence Zebras Over 2.5 -17% 2–4 HIT18 JUL Launceston vs Kingborough L. AO1.5 1–3 HIT11 JUL South Hobart vs Ulverstone Home -16% 2–0 HIT11 JUL Clarence Zebras vs Launceston AO1.5 1–2 HIT11 JUL Devonport vs South East Utd HO1.5 2–0 HIT10 JUL Glenorchy K. vs Kingborough L. AO1.5 0–2 HIT10 JUL Launceston Utd vs Riverside Over 2.5 -12% 0–1 MISS5 JUL South East Utd vs South Hobart AO1.5 1–0 MISS4 JUL Ulverstone vs Kingborough L. AO1.5 2–1 MISS4 JUL Devonport vs Riverside Over 2.5 -13% 4–1 HIT4 JUL Glenorchy K. vs Clarence Zebras Over 2.5 -15% 2–2 HITJune 2026 // 1 PICK · 0 HIT · 1 MISS
28 JUN Launceston vs South East Utd Over 2.5 -3% 1–0 MISS