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South Hobart vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Matchday 18 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 04:00

South Hobart

PPG 3.00 · HOME

5 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Riverside

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 78.3% vs bookmaker-implied 90.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.3%0-20.6%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-05.1%1-14.4%1-21.9%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-08.5%2-17.3%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-09.3%3-18.0%3-23.5%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-017.7%4+-115.3%4+-26.6%4+-31.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 75.0% 89.3% 1.12 -16.0%

Draw 16.6% 14.7% 6.80 +7.7%

Away win 8.4% 8.3% 12.00 +0.5%

Over 2.5 67.8% 87.7% 1.14 -22.7%

Over 3.5 47.5% 71.9% 1.39 -34.0%

BTTS 54.6% 69.4% 1.44 -21.4%

Home O1.5 78.3% 90.9% 1.10 -13.9%

Away O1.5 21.9% 29.9% 3.34 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 55 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 76%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 33%

ROI 12.9%

Bet Hit 82%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-2

xG (home)3.3 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 75% / xG 3.3-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 3–0 9.3%

#2 2–0 8.5%

#3 3–1 8.0%

#4 4–0 7.7%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Hobart3.3

Riverside0.9

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.8% · O3.5 PROB 47.5%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH HOBART · PPG 3.00

RIVERSIDE · PPG 1.25

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

95%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.43 for Home, form 3.00 vs 1.25 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

South Hobart (H) 75.0%

ODDS 1.12 · IMPLIED 89.3% EV -16.0%

Draw 16.6%

ODDS 6.80 · IMPLIED 14.7% EV +7.7%

Riverside (A) 8.4%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +0.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Hobart face Riverside in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Hobart a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Riverside 8%, so South Hobart are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.3 for South Hobart and 0.9 for Riverside (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 3-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Hobart are averaging 3.00 points per game versus 1.25 for Riverside. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +25.7%. This match finished 5-2.

South Hobart vs Riverside Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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