Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Kingborough Lions vs Launceston United

Kingborough Lions vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 17 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 04:30

Kingborough Lions

PPG 2.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Launceston United

PPG 0.29 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +3.42 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.29 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.9%0-10.6%0-20.2%0-30.0%0-4+0.0%1 1-03.6%1-12.4%1-20.8%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-07.4%2-14.8%2-21.6%2-30.3%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-030.2%4+-119.7%4+-26.4%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.7% — — —

Draw 16.7% — — —

Away win 8.7% — — —

Over 2.5 72.7% — — —

Over 3.5 53.3% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 77.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 45 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 73%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 58%

Score Hit 31%

ROI 8.0%

Bet Hit 80%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 70%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)4.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.6%

H 75% / xG 4.1-0.7 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 4–0 10.2%

#2 3–0 10.0%

#3 5–0 8.3%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 4–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kingborough Lions4.1

Launceston United0.7

COMBINED 4.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.7% · O3.5 PROB 53.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KINGBOROUGH LIONS · PPG 2.71

LAUNCESTON UNITED · PPG 0.29

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +3.42 for Home, form 2.71 vs 0.29 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Kingborough Lions (H) 74.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 16.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Launceston United (A) 8.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Kingborough Lions face Launceston United in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kingborough Lions a 75% chance, the draw 17% and Launceston United 9%, so Kingborough Lions are favoured to win. Expected goals are 4.1 for Kingborough Lions and 0.7 for Launceston United (4.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 4-0. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kingborough Lions are averaging 2.71 points per game versus 0.29 for Launceston United.

Kingborough Lions vs Launceston United Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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