Today / Australia - NPL Tasmania / Launceston United vs Devonport City

Launceston United vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 04:30

Launceston United

PPG 0.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Devonport City

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

Model probability 86.7% vs bookmaker-implied 94.3%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-00.4%0-11.9%0-24.2%0-36.4%0-4+25.3%1 1-00.4%1-11.8%1-24.1%1-36.2%1-4+24.3%2 2-00.2%2-10.9%2-22.0%2-33.0%2-4+11.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.3%3-20.6%3-31.0%3-4+3.8%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.4% 9.1% 11.00 +28.4%

Draw 17.4% 11.1% 9.00 +34.0%

Away win 69.2% 87.7% 1.14 -21.1%

Over 2.5 79.6% 85.5% 1.17 -6.9%

Over 3.5 56.4% 70.4% 1.42 -19.9%

BTTS 62.5% 62.1% 1.61 +0.6%

Home O1.5 35.0% 26.7% 3.75 +31.3%

Away O1.5 86.7% 94.3% 1.06 -8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 74%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -8.2%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 73%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)4.5 BTTS prob62.5%

A 69% / xG 1.0-4.5 / O2.5 80% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 7.2%

#2 1–4 7.0%

#3 0–5 6.5%

#4 0–3 6.4%

#5 1–5 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Launceston United1.0

Devonport City4.5

COMBINED 5.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 79.6% · O3.5 PROB 56.4%

Form & verdict PPG

LAUNCESTON UNITED · PPG 0.38

DEVONPORT CITY · PPG 2.14

✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum

90%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -3.56 for Away, form 0.38 vs 2.14

Win probability 1X2

Launceston United (H) 13.4%

ODDS 11.00 · IMPLIED 9.1% EV +28.4%

Draw 17.4%

ODDS 9.00 · IMPLIED 11.1% EV +34.0%

Devonport City (A) 69.2%

ODDS 1.14 · IMPLIED 87.7% EV -21.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Launceston United face Devonport City in Australia - NPL Tasmania on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Launceston United a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Devonport City 69%, so Devonport City are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Launceston United and 4.5 for Devonport City (5.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 80% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Launceston United are averaging 0.38 points per game versus 2.14 for Devonport City. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +173.3%.

Launceston United vs Devonport City Prediction— Australia - NPL Tasmania

Match Preview & Prediction

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